{"id":7489,"date":"2024-08-09T17:53:54","date_gmt":"2024-08-09T20:53:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/?p=7489"},"modified":"2024-12-04T15:21:51","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T18:21:51","slug":"are-professional-forecasters-inattentive-to-public-discussions-about-inflation-the-case-of-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/are-professional-forecasters-inattentive-to-public-discussions-about-inflation-the-case-of-argentina\/","title":{"rendered":"Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? The case of Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? The case of Argentina\n\n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Daniel Aromi \n
\nMart\u00edn Llada<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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9 May 2024\n<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Journal of Forecasting, accepted, online publication<\/p>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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We evaluate whether professional forecasters incorporate valuable information from public discussions on social media. The study covers the case of inflation in Argentina for the period 2016\u20132022. We find solid evidence consistent with inattention. A simple indicator of attention to inflation on social media is shown to anticipate professional forecast errors. A one standard deviation increment in the indicator is followed by a rise of 0.4% in mean forecast errors in the subsequent month and by a cumulative increment of 0.7% over the next 6 months. Furthermore, social media content anticipates significant revisions in forecasts that target multiple months ahead inflation and calendar year inflation. These findings are different from previously documented forms of inattention. Consistent results are verified by implementing out-of-sample forecasts and using content from an alternative social network. The study has implications for the use of professional forecasts in the context of policymaking and sheds new evidence on the nature of imperfect information in macroeconomics.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Av. C\u00f3rdoba 2122 – 1\u00b0 piso (C1120 AAQ)
Ciudad Aut\u00f3noma de Buenos Aires |\u00a0 Argentina
Tel\/fax: +54 11 5285-6578\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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\u00bfQuer\u00e9s conocer nuestras novedades?\nSumate a nuestra lista de correo<\/a><\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? The case of Argentina Daniel Aromi Mart\u00edn Llada bajar 9 May 2024 Journal of Forecasting, accepted, online publication We evaluate whether<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[97],"tags":[68,94],"class_list":["post-7489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-paper","tag-novedades","tag-publicaciones"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7489"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7489\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8422,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7489\/revisions\/8422"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/netlab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}