{"id":22954,"date":"2026-04-24T07:49:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T10:49:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/?post_type=tribe_events&p=22954"},"modified":"2026-04-24T07:55:59","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T10:55:59","slug":"export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo","status":"publish","type":"tribe_events","link":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/","title":{"rendered":"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n
\nExport Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo<\/p>\n

Expositor | Asier Minondo<\/strong> | Deusto Business School<\/p>\n

Resumen<\/strong>
\nBetween June 2022 and October 2024, Algeria imposed a politically motivated embargo on imports from Spain. Because neither the imposition of the embargo nor its lifting was anticipated by Spanish firms, this episode provides a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the causal effect of a sudden market shutdown on subsequent export behavior. We interpret this causal effect as evidence on export hysteresis, i.e., the degree to which exporting fails to resume because of market-specific frictions. We show that the embargo reduced the post-embargo probability of exporting to Algeria by 34%. However, this negative effect is smaller than the impact of an observationally equivalent situation in which a firm simply does not export to a market for two and a half years in the absence of an embargo. This finding suggests that studies relying on non-experimental variation may overstate the effect of export hysteresis on the probability of exporting. We also show that the embargo\u2019s negative effects continued even one year after it was lifted. Finally, we find that the largest decrease in the probability of exporting occurred in firms with a large pre-embargo market share and long export experience in Algeria.
\nCoautores<\/strong>\u00a0 | Juan de Lucio, Ra\u00fal M\u00ednguez y Francisco Requena<\/p>\n

Lugar | FCE-UBA | Aula Olivera<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo Expositor | Asier Minondo | Deusto Business School Resumen Between June 2022 and October<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_tribe_events_status":"","_tribe_events_status_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"tribe_events_cat":[224,74],"class_list":["post-22954","tribe_events","type-tribe_events","status-publish","hentry","tribe_events_cat-destacada","tribe_events_cat-seminario-iiep","cat_destacada","cat_seminario-iiep"],"yoast_head":"\nSeminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo - IIEP UBA-CONICET<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo - IIEP UBA-CONICET\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo Expositor | Asier Minondo | Deusto Business School Resumen Between June 2022 and October\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IIEP UBA-CONICET\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-24T10:55:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-content\/uploads\/iiep-ico.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/eventos\\\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/eventos\\\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\\\/\",\"name\":\"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo - IIEP UBA-CONICET\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-24T10:49:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-24T10:55:59+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/eventos\\\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"es-AR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/eventos\\\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/eventos\\\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Inicio\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Eventos\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/eventos\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/\",\"name\":\"IIEP\",\"description\":\"IIEP UBA-CONICET\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"es-AR\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"IIEP\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es-AR\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/logo_iiep_light.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/logo_iiep_light.svg\",\"caption\":\"IIEP\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/economicas.uba.ar\\\/iiep\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo - IIEP UBA-CONICET","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/","og_locale":"es_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo - IIEP UBA-CONICET","og_description":"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo Expositor | Asier Minondo | Deusto Business School Resumen Between June 2022 and October","og_url":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/","og_site_name":"IIEP UBA-CONICET","article_modified_time":"2026-04-24T10:55:59+00:00","og_image":[{"width":300,"height":300,"url":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-content\/uploads\/iiep-ico.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Tiempo de lectura":"2 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/","url":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/","name":"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo - IIEP UBA-CONICET","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-04-24T10:49:34+00:00","dateModified":"2026-04-24T10:55:59+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"es-AR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/export-scarring-after-a-trade-ban-a-quasi-natural-experiment-from-the-algerian-embargo\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Inicio","item":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Eventos","item":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/eventos\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Seminario de investigaci\u00f3n | Export Scarring After a Trade Ban: A Quasi-natural Experiment from the Algerian Embargo"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/#website","url":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/","name":"IIEP","description":"IIEP UBA-CONICET","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"es-AR"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/#organization","name":"IIEP","url":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"es-AR","@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-content\/uploads\/logo_iiep_light.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-content\/uploads\/logo_iiep_light.svg","caption":"IIEP"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/22954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/tribe_events"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/22954\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22957,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events\/22954\/revisions\/22957"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22954"},{"taxonomy":"tribe_events_cat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicas.uba.ar\/iiep\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tribe_events_cat?post=22954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}